A Methodology for Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems by Kurt Weichselberger

By Kurt Weichselberger

In this publication the ensuing use of chance concept is proposed for dealing with uncertainty in professional structures. it truly is proven that equipment violating this advice could have harmful effects (e.g., the Dempster-Shafer rule and the strategy utilized in MYCIN). the need of a few specifications for an accurate combining of doubtful info in professional structures is verified and appropriate ideas are supplied. the prospect is considered that period estimates are given rather than specified information regarding chances. For combining info containing period estimates principles are supplied that are precious in lots of cases.

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21) cannot be derived from more general results of probability theory but must rather be seen as proposals, their behaviour is an important criterion concerning their applicability. 21) and of the Dempster-Shafer rule in diagnostic systems: These procedures do not use all the information which may be relevant in order to draw conclusions from different pieces of evidence. It should be noted, that our argumentation up to now by no means relies on anything like a Bayesian concept. The mere comparison of probability statements based on different observations demonstrates the necessity of taking the alternative into consideration.

3448 ! 4138. 6) is often recommended for all cases of combining independent sources of information and especially for the use in diagnostic systems. It can easily by generalized to more than two independent sources of information, either directly or stepwise. 62-64]. Since this rule cannot be derived from laws of probability, it is legitimate to search for competing solutions for the considered problem and to compare the behaviour of such solutions. 21) to cases in which interval estimates of probabilities are used.

The same is true, if any source of information distinguishes between more than two possible observations. 1 Choquet-Capacities and Sets of Probability Distributions In this chapter we shall present a short report about a theory closely related to the contents of Chapter 2. In the years around 1953 Gustave Choquet introduced the concept of "capacities" to denominate set functions which do not obey the law of additivity but obey some law of either sub-additivity or supra-additivity [CHOQUET, 1953/54, 1959].

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