Adversarial Reasoning: Computational Approaches to Reading by Alexander Kott, William M. McEneaney

By Alexander Kott, William M. McEneaney

That includes techniques that draw from disciplines similar to synthetic intelligence and cognitive modeling, adverse Reasoning: Computational methods to examining the Opponent's brain describes applied sciences and purposes that handle a vast variety of functional difficulties, together with army making plans and command, army and overseas intelligence, antiterrorism and household safety, in addition to simulation and coaching platforms. The authors current an outline of every challenge after which talk about methods and purposes, combining theoretical rigor with accessibility. This entire quantity covers cause and plan popularity, deception discovery, and method formula.

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Acknowledgments This work was supported in part by Air Force Research Labs, Information Directorate, Grant No. F30602-01-1-0595, Air Force Office of Scientific Research Grant No. F49620-03-1-0014, Department of Defense Grant No. FA8750-04-C-0118, and Office of the Secretary of Defense Grant No. FA865004-M-6435. ; Axel Anurak, Sergio Gigli, and Frank Vetesi at LM ATL; and Scott Brown, Ben Bell, Joshua Surman, Hua Wang, and Alex Negri for all their invaluable assistance in moving the ideas in this research forward.

However, they are not very good at combining multiple observations, nor are they very good at reasoning backward from effects to causes. In contrast, computers have limited experience and cannot assign likelihoods based on their experience except in very narrow domains. However, computers are very good at combining the probabilities from multiple observations to compute the most likely goal under varying circumstances, and they can use conditional probabilities to determine the most likely cause given a collection of observations.

In this trial, a general adversary model was first created and then specialized to portray different adversaries. The general model contained random variables that accounted for variability in weapons capabilities, tactical/strategic strikes, and responses to the presence of Blue forces in any of the four directions. Two instances of the model with different belief systems were created with the AII, referenced as adversary A and B. Adversary A possessed a competent air force, a smaller ground force, and WMDs, whereas adversary B was lacking any WMDs, had much less air power, but had a powerful ground force.

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